ABDEL-FATTAH AL-SISI is not waiting in suspense for the results of Egypt’s presidential election. The incumbent had only one challenger, a virtual nobody, in the three-day vote that started on March 26th. Though official numbers will not be released until next week, a preliminary tally in state media shows Mr Sisi winning a second term with 92% of the vote. His opponent, Moussa Mustafa Moussa, netted just 3%. Local media called the charade Egypt’s “wedding” to democracy. It was clearly an arranged marriage.
Even so it was not the commanding victory Mr Sisi wanted. A state newspaper, Al-Ahram, said that 25m people voted, about 42% of the electorate. That is markedly less than the 47% who voted in 2014. More than 1m Egyptians spoiled their ballots, nearly twice the number who chose Mr Moussa. (Some crossed out both candidates and wrote in Mohamed Salah, a popular Egyptian footballer.) By Friday afternoon state media had stopped reporting on the ruined ballots, and credited Mr Sisi with winning 97% of the valid vote.
His allies tried both bribery and bullying to boost turnout. There was a festive atmosphere outside many polling stations, with groups of women waving Egyptian flags and dancing to nationalist songs. This was not a spontaneous outpouring of patriotic fervour, however. At least some were recruited by wealthy businessmen who advertised the gigs on Facebook: 150 Egyptian pounds ($9) for a day’s work. The governor of Beheira province, in the Nile Delta, promised to fix water and sewage systems in the districts with the highest turnout. In another province, residents were offered a raffle for free pilgrimages to Mecca—but only if turnout hit 40%. On the last day of voting the electoral commission threatened to enforce a law levying 500-pound fines on Egyptians who failed to show up.
Anecdotally, those who did turn out were mostly older people. People under the age of 30, who make up just under two-thirds of the population, seem to have been underrepresented. There was also a class divide. In Cairo, polling stations were busiest in comfortable districts like Zamalek and Nasr City. Residents of impoverished slums were unenthusiastic. Some of the official figures strain credulity. The government insists there was “very good” turnout in North Sinai, which is in the throes of a jihadist insurgency and a major army offensive. Witnesses said the flow of voters was only a trickle.
There was one positive: the vote went off peacefully. The local affiliate of Islamic State had warned Egyptians not to vote and urged militants to carry out attacks. Two days before the election a powerful bomb went off in Alexandria, killing two and injuring five. It missed its real target, the local security chief, who was driving past in his convoy. But it was the first attack on the mainland since Mr Sisi ordered the Sinai offensive in February. The next few days were quiet, owing in part to a massive deployment of soldiers and police.
Islamic State is one challenge awaiting Mr Sisi in his second term. Another is the economy. Over the past 18 months he has devalued the currency and cut wasteful food and fuel subsidies. These steps were long overdue and helped stabilise an economy that had been in free-fall since the 2013 coup that overthrew the elected Muslim Brotherhood government. But they were also painful. Most Egyptians have cut their spending as their purchasing power has shrivelled. The constitution requires Mr Sisi to step aside in 2022. He will have to decide whether to do so, or to amend the document, as some allies have already suggested. With the wedding over, Mr Sisi will not have much of a honeymoon.
